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Microsoft Will Prevail, But Say Goodbye to Monopoly Profits

As everyone knows, Google is going after the core of the Microsoft franchise: Windows and Office/Exchange. They face incredibly long odds. Why? In the long run, Google has only one real weapon against Microsoft: lower cost. Yes, the Windows OS is bloated and not web centric. Windows 7 will close these gaps. Office and Exchange work well despite poor web integration, but expect this shortcoming to evaporate soon (this week?). Google is not offering something substantially better. They are offering something cheaper.

This is not to say Google v. Microsoft won't be a vicious war. It will. Google will be aggressive. They will get hardware makers to take Linux seriously. They will engage with big companies to use their products. They will get some victories. But, they will mostly invest money with little return.
 
By embracing the browser and web application model, Google will lower the network effect of the Windows OS, the source of their monopoly power. But, even with this strength diminished, there are still lots of benefit to using Windows: habit, ecosystem, sunk investment, etc. Everyone will dabble with leaving (partial enterprise use, threats, etc.), but in the end, they will get Windows and Office at an acceptable price and stay.
 
And, that's the best thing about this war: the consumer is going to win big time.
 
Google will raise the bar. Free, online services, unlimited storage. MS will respond. More investment, more features and lower prices. Goodbye monopoly rents.
 
In the end, the two best business models we have seen in the last 50 years are colliding. The massive profits from these business models are now going after each other. What will we end up with in 10 years? Two massively successful companies, a lot more innovation and lower prices. And how about for shareholders? Well, get ready for lower returns.

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Comments (12)

Jul 12, 2009
Kent Langley said...
"Google is not offering something substantially better. They are offering something cheaper."

I have to disagree with that statement. The collaboration functionality of Google Apps is really excellent and very useful. For me at least, the collaboration abilities outweigh most differences in features. Nothing yet from Microsoft comes close. I recently, in real time co-edited a document with 4-6 other people simultaneously with rich formatting (CSS driven) in Google Docs. We built a comprehensive and complex software specification document on a single phone call that was the on-going basis for a longer project. It was extremely productive.

Having said that, I am interested to see what Microsoft has coming up though! The market/we need to Google vs. Microsoft. It spurs innovation dramatically. Microsoft was not threatened for far too long in the core business.

Kent Langley

Jul 12, 2009
Lew Moorman said...
As a collaboration tool, I absolutely cannot argue with you. But, two issues, with this. One, that is what google docs is: a collaboration tool. It is not a full fledged replacement for office. And two, MS will have the same features. Just wait.
Jul 12, 2009
Girish said...
Fully agree, great picture! Did you create it yourself?
Jul 13, 2009
rogergoudarzi said...
"Google is not offering something substantially better. They are offering something cheaper."

Since Kent points out the collaboration features of Google Apps. Here is another substantial improvement: "Ask any GMail user why don't they use folders to classify their mail, their answer will simply be why bother I can get to anything in 2 sec by searching my mail box". Just try doing that in outlook !

I think what Google is offering is profoundly different to what Microsoft has been offering. Google is laser focused on delivering simple tools that as a collection work to solve 80%-90% of a users problems. The largest cost to productivity is collaboration, Google is aiming to solve this in a simple, platform neutral manner that will work well with connected devices.

I think as you say the consumer is the winner here. The shareholder will also win, the rapid expansion of digital life will only increase the need for better tools and services, so the market as a whole will be bigger. In 10 years from now, we probably will not recognize the digital landscape.

Jul 13, 2009
rogergoudarzi said...
Another point of view:

http://mashable.com/2009/07/11/google-equation/

Chrome OS: Keeping you on the web

Google Revenue = Amount of Time on the Web

I think that is also very relevant to what Google is doing.

Jul 13, 2009
Lew Moorman said...
Roger, folders are not a problem. Email search can be solved. So can basic document collaboration. MS will solve them too. Their is no competitive difference in what Google is offering.
Jul 13, 2009
google_chromeos said...
Good article. I happen to share a differing view however. I do believe that since it will be an open source project, it can never really "be killed".

I posted a small write-up on my blog here: http://www.chrome-os-blog.com/will-chrome-os-simply-serve-as-a-reason-for-microsoft-to-lower-prices-133/

Jul 13, 2009
Lew Moorman said...
chromeos:
Well, you are right, nothing dies that is open source....but, that does not mean it will severely impact the market. Ubuntu is much loved but has not impacted Windows or Mac. My hunch is Chrome will fare even better than Ubuntu on the desktop, but that is a far cry from making a real dent in the MS kingdom.
Jul 13, 2009
rogergoudarzi said...
The question is WHEN will MS solve these problems. Clearly from Kent's vantage point Collaboration was a problem and a competitive difference. I wonder how many more people think like him ?

I issue here is that anything that erodes the Windows/Office revenue stream will hurt very noticeably while keeping people online will only benefit Google.

Jul 13, 2009
Ryan Mueller said...
Firstly, MS will continue to retain it's grip on the enterprise market. Savvy user's gripe, but sysadmins know what they're getting with MS apps. Second, Internet savvy users, from the general populace, are adopting the the Web 3.0 philosophy even without their knowing it. Google has been at the fore front in this area with their gApps. The introduction of a web oriented OS will really propel the idea of computing in the cloud even further.... but it will be another 5+ years before you see enterprise move to a Web 3.0 infrastructure.

Bottom line is, if MS can catch up with Google regarding in-the-cloud computing, they stand to make much more than Google because their adopters will be large companies first, and the individual user second. Google will continue to have a shallow presence in the enterprise market. Will their revenue, generated by the general user, via their less direct plan of stimulating ad revenue be enough to sustain them?

Jul 13, 2009
justinsail said...
Amen to "say goodbye to monopoly rents"!!!
Nov 18, 2009
sandesh mhaske said...
Hmmm......

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