Want to Reduce Deficit Spending? Prove it.

The tea bag crowd is outraged at our out of control spending.  It is THE positioning issue for the GOP - which is smart given the deficit is a massive issue facing our nation.  We absolutely have to get it under control over time.   But, if you want to fix it, you only have a few options.  You have to hurt one of 3 groups:

1.  The old (entitlements)
2.  The military (defense)
3.  The rich (tax increases)

Fact is all the other options don't add up to much.  For details here is a pie chart.

Burning-money

So if you are someone sick of all this spending you have to prove it. What do you want to cut?

Republicans number one attack on the health care bill was that it would CUT Medicare (this is not your Mother's Republican Party).  They want to perpetually cut taxes and they would never consider hitting the military. So what is the plan?  I want to hear it.  Until then, it is just marketing.  As for the Dems, well, Obama is going to put them to the test on it in the coming years (post recession when deficits actually do make sense).  My hunch is the special interests will win again.  Raise retirement age?  Good luck. Streamline the military?  The terrorists win.  Increase taxes?  We live in a socialist state.    

At some point, we will have to make some hard calls.  Who will have the guts to actually do it?

Hey Print Media, the Tablet is Your (Last?) Big Chance

Tablet mania has hit tech blogging circles with the world all abuzz about Apple's announcement of their new product later this month.  

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I think there is a good chance the tablet products coming could be a major disappointment - at least in terms of short term adoption.  I have two main reasons for this concern.  One, I am not sure what problem it is solving.  Without a problem, there is no demand for a solution.  And two, whatever problem it is solving, people change slowly unless it is remarkably better (or cheaper) than the current behavior.

There are all sorts of issues the tablet could solve.  Some are not big enough issues (mobile browsing - thanks to the other Apple phenom, the iPhone people can already do this pretty well).  Others have massive adoption hurdles (paperless offices and collaborating - we can't even get doctors to go electronic and they have a ton to gain).   

I can see one place where the set of problems, human behavior issues and incentive all line up really well:  print media.    

I have discussed the path to survival for print media previously.  Well, now is their chance to put the plan into action.  Print media has a few things that are a real asset to tablet makers today.  One, they have paid subscribers.  Yes, it is declining, but the Wall St Journal has 2 million readers a day.  People Magazine has 4 million a week.  Two, they have an outrageously expensive and inefficient distribution system - mail and home delivery.  Three, they have event based publishing (i.e. the issue).  

All three add up to something pretty big.  Your subscribers want and are willing to pay for your content.  You can replace an expensive system with a cheap one by subsidizing the one time switching cost.  And, you can make the tablet really useful without full time internet access - a big hurdle for the tablet.  

Imagine this offer: renew your NY Times for 3 years and get a free Apple tablet.  Or renew 2 magazines and get half off.  The economics will work.  The hard part is you need to go cold turkey.  Make the tablet the de facto way of consuming your content.  You have to get all the cost savings from shutting down the printing press and paperboys.  And, you have to guarantee traction to the tablet guys.  In return you take control of the new medium.  Get great at it.  Leverage it to gain access to your real time content once wifi is ubiquitous (or 3G is cheaper).  Use it to get great real estate on the user interface.  Do this:

Make the content king not the device.  Make the device work for you, don't wait for Steve Jobs to figure it out so you have to come begging.

Yes, there are a million details to work out.  But, signs suggest that media companies are getting after it.  The time to be bold is now.

10 Essentials of 2009 Culture

I love Top 10 lists at year end.  Cultural options are exploding and these lists collectively help us wade through it.  I have no way to do a top 10 list for any one medium because I just can't consume enough of it.  But, here is my list (in an order that promotes variety) of 10 things that I think were great in 2009.

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Up in the Air.  This one is on almost every top 10 film list out there, and I think for good reason.  Jason Reitman took a mediocre (but hilarious) book by Walter Kirn and turned it into the perfect fable for the Lost Decade.  Our obsession in the 2000s with perceived progress (see:  Iraq, Real Estate Bubble, Pets.com) over real success has no better hero than George Clooney's rootless, airline-elite-status seeking layoff consultant.  

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I and Love and You, The Avett Brothers.  No other album did I keep coming back to more than this one.  Hard core fans seem to think these North Carolinians sold out given the big name producer (Rick Rubin) and more polished sound.  For me, it is as good as it gets.

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Morning Joe.  I don't watch much TV, but in the mornings I like to have it on.  After years of being a CNBC junkie, I just can't stand it anymore.  The endless parade of people predicting the day's stock market direction just feels like a lie.  Morning Joe is the perfect antidote.  Varied topics, great guests, discussion not yelling, and the great Mika Brzezinsky leading the way.   

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Await Your Reply, Dan Chaon.  Most of my year reading was spent on award winners from year's past (great stuff from the likes of Zadie Smith, Jhumpa Lahiri, Michael Chabon, Gabriel Garcia Marquez), but Chaon's literary page turner was a highlight.  I could not put down this cautionary tale of the new era of virtual identity and reinvention.

(500) Days of Summer. The romantic comedy has to be one of the most bankrupt genres out there.  Until 500 Days breathed new life into it.  I just don't remember enjoying a movie more than this one (I Love You Man was right there too).  Simple in plot and ambition, but super creative and well acted, this one nailed the joys and pitfalls of youthful romance.  And, nothing was funnier than the dance sequence above celebrating the consummation of a long, awkward, yearning crush.  

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Far, Regina Spektor.  There is something wholly original in Regina Spektor.  Part pop and part indie, at times challenging and others completely accessible, this album (and her previous debut) is a must have.

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Kindle 2.  Not since Oprah has something made reading so cool as Amazon's e-reader.  They nailed the basics (wireless downloading, readable screen) and are reaping the rewards.  They also raised the bar on the mobile tech world and whole slew of innovation is coming in its wake.  Whether it ends up the dominant platform is irrelevant to its legacy of starting it all.  Bonus:  if you get one, make sure you check out Feedbooks to get free classics in the Kindle format.

The essays of Thomas Friedman and Atul Gawande.  No one is doing better thinking on the issues of our time than these two commentators.  Friedman continues to lay out the challenges of our oil import obsessed nation and the creeping erosion it is inflicting on our competitive advantage.  Gawande brings common sense and perspective to the health care debate based on real world experience as a surgeon.  They are also two examples of how the main stream media still has a lot to offer. 

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The Hurt Locker.  Not my favorite movie to sit through, but I just have not been able to get this one out of my mind.  If you want to understand what we are up against and what we are putting our soldiers through physically and mentally, there is no better 2+ hours you can spend. 

Oscar Dudamel.  I am ignorant when it comes to classical music, but Dudamel, who took over the LA Philharmonic this year, is truly a rock star.  I am not sure if it is his wild hair or the incredible performances with Youth Orchestras (both are in full display in above clip), but he makes you want to listen.  And, given he is only 28, he is just getting started.   

So that's what I liked.  I am sure I will spend most of 2010 catching up on what I missed in 2009.  Any suggestions?